Archived calculator from the "Mystery Box" Economics post, reflecting the reward terms as of December 23, 2024.
| Reward | Expected spend | Reward value | Probability | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,000 points | ⎯ | $100.00 | 0.50% | $0.50 |
| 7,500 points | ⎯ | $75.00 | 0.75% | $0.56 |
| 5,000 points | ⎯ | $50.00 | 1.50% | $0.75 |
| 2,500 points | ⎯ | $25.00 | 2.50% | $0.50 |
| 1,500 points | ⎯ | $15.00 | 4.00% | $0.60 |
| 1,250 points | ⎯ | $12.50 | 5.00% | $0.63 |
| 10% cashback on next grocery purchase | 7.00% | |||
| 10% cashback on next gas purchase | 7.00% | |||
| 5% cashback for 24 hours | 8.00% | |||
| 10% cashback on next Uber or Lyft | 10.00% | |||
| 15% cashback on next Starbucks purchase | 10.00% | |||
| 4% cashback for 24 hours | 10.75% | |||
| 5% cashback on next Amazon.com purchase | 10.00% | |||
| 5% cashback on next restaurant purchase | 12.00% | |||
| 5% cashback on next DoorDash or Uber Eats | 11.00% | |||
| "Mystery Box" cost | $10.00 | |||
| Total "Mystery Box" expected value | ||||