Robinhood announced a new “Mystery Box” points redemption feature to Gold [credit] Card customers today. Launching a loot crate minigame for consumer debt is an odd move — Robinhood, after all, spent the last few years insisting it’s an accessible but responsible consumer financial services company (c.f. their debit and retirement products) and not a gambling app for candy-crushing your life’s savings away into short-call options. Between their recent event contracts experiment and Vlad’s chatter about sports betting, they seem lately less afraid of the casino comparison.
A “Mystery Box” costs 1, 000 points. The result of about $333 in spend, 1, 000 points have a $10 value in cash-back redemption.1 Each Box yields a reward in one of three forms:
Importantly, the 2nd and 3rd reward forms — boosted cashback rates — do not stack on the standard 3% cash-back rate offered by the card. You should think of the reward as just the marginal increase over 3%: a 4% elevated rate only nets you 1% additional cash-back.
When does it make sense to buy a “Mystery Box” instead of redeeming to cash in a Brokerage account? The expected value depends on how you expect to spend after buying it. If you have specific plans — e.g. a large single purchase you need to make on Amazon — the expected value may exceed the $10 price tag.
I am not a financial advisor and this is not financial advice. These reward definitions are from the Robinhood Gold Card Rewards Program Rules as of December 23, 2024; they may change.
| Reward | Expected spend | Reward value | Probability | Expected value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,000 points | ⎯ | $100.00 | 0.50% | $0.50 |
| 7,500 points | ⎯ | $75.00 | 0.75% | $0.56 |
| 5,000 points | ⎯ | $50.00 | 1.50% | $0.75 |
| 2,500 points | ⎯ | $25.00 | 2.50% | $0.50 |
| 1,500 points | ⎯ | $15.00 | 4.00% | $0.60 |
| 1,250 points | ⎯ | $12.50 | 5.00% | $0.63 |
| 10% cashback on next grocery purchase | 7.00% | |||
| 10% cashback on next gas purchase | 7.00% | |||
| 5% cashback for 24 hours | 8.00% | |||
| 10% cashback on next Uber or Lyft | 10.00% | |||
| 15% cashback on next Starbucks purchase | 10.00% | |||
| 4% cashback for 24 hours | 10.75% | |||
| 5% cashback on next Amazon.com purchase | 10.00% | |||
| 5% cashback on next restaurant purchase | 12.00% | |||
| 5% cashback on next DoorDash or Uber Eats | 11.00% | |||
| "Mystery Box" cost | $10.00 | |||
| Total "Mystery Box" expected value | ||||
The ranges on these sliders are, for the most part, just what feel reasonable to me. I don’t know if Starbucks would let you place a $5,000 order; either way, you probably won’t try.
The Robinhood terms explicitly cap the eligible spend for 5% and 4% 24-hour boosts at $2,500 and $1,000, respectively.
$2,500 may seem like an excessively large Amazon.com or grocery purchase, but I leave the limit high because either may be used to buy what amount to cash-equivalents. Robinhood may consider that rewards abuse and take action against abusive accounts.